We used both a memory design in which participants tried to recall their original answers to questions after learning the correct answers to those questions and a quasi-hypothetical design in which participants first identified degraded objects clarifying on a computer screen or behind a series of filter screens and then, armed with knowledge of the objects’ identity, tried to estimate when a na ̈ve peer would identify those objects. Thus, older adults show a different quantity of hindsight bias by more often forgetting their original prediction and reconstructing it using the outcome information. Older adults tend to make this reconstructive error more than all other age groups. Instead, older children and adults show hindsight bias by reconstructing their original prediction and using the outcome information as a guide. No other age group makes this kind of error consistently. Using MPT models to decompose visual and verbal hindsight bias, we found that young preschoolers exhibit a qualitative shift in their hindsight bias by confusing the outcome information with their original prediction and claiming that they or a na ̈ve peer knew it all along. Hindsight bias follows a U-shaped development, with preschoolers and older adults showing more bias than older children and younger adults (see Figure 4). This is the first study to trace the development of hindsight bias across the life span. Thus, as we observed in the verbal hindsight task, although there is no clear evidence for a larger quantity (parameter b ) of being biased by outcome knowledge in preschoolers, there is strong evidence for reconstruction bias having a different quality (parameter c ) in preschoolers. 33 on the real object hindsight task) compared to all other age groups. More importantly, comparing across ages, the youngest age group tested here (3- to 4-year-olds) showed the most source confusion: Parameter c was significantly higher in preschoolers ( c Ј ϭ. task despite a larger ML estimate ( c Ј ϭ.
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